Abstract
Whether young adults enter the labor market during a downturn or a boom is largely a matter of luck: exposure is determined by year of birth and place of residence rather than by individual characteristics. We conceptualize such conditions as macro-level trigger events — shocks that strike broad segments of a population demarcated only by time and place — and argue that they constitute a distinct axis of stratification, sorting otherwise similar cohorts into divergent trajectories. Using European Labour Force Survey data on more than 5 million respondents from 1,800  entry cohorts across 94 regions in 24 countries, we estimate the consequences of regional unemployment at entry for labor market outcomes two to ten years later. Effects on employment access are substantial but transitory, fading within roughly five years. Effects on employment quality — temporary contracts, low-skilled placement, occupational status — persist essentially undiminished a decade after entry, consistent with segmentation processes that resist re-sorting. These consequences are unevenly distributed: tertiary-educated entrants appear largely insulated, while effects on job quality concentrate among those with lower levels of education, and persistent non-employment is most pronounced among less-educated women. Across countries, the impact of initial labor market conditions is stronger where employment protection is stricter, consistent with insider-outsider accounts in which the protection of incumbents shifts the costs of adjustment onto labor market entrants. We find little systematic evidence for a moderating role of active labor market policies or income support schemes.