Previ al Col·loqui, de 10:40 a 11:00h, esteu tots convidats a l’Espai del cafè.

José Manuel Aburto és Investigador en el Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark i en el Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), a Rostock (Alemanya).

Global contribution of violence to lifetime uncertainty

Abstract.- Uncertainty around age at death, or lifetime uncertainty, is a key public health indicator and a marker of inequality in survival. By definition, violence and conflict create uncertainty in individuals’ lives, likely to influence the predictability of their lifespan. However, the relationship between violence and lifetime uncertainty has not yet been addressed. Using mortality data by sex for 163 countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study and information on violence from the Global Peace Index between 2008-2017, we first find a strong positive correlation between levels of violence and lifetime uncertainty. In the Middle East, conflict-related violence is the most important cause-of-death contributor to lifetime uncertainty. In Latin American countries, this role is played by homicides and interpersonal violence.