Previ al Col·loqui, de 10:40 a 11:00h, esteu tots convidats a l’Espai del cafè.

Philippe Bocquier és Professor i Investigador a l’Institute for the Analysis of Change in Contemporary and Historical Societies-IACCHOS, Université Catholique de Louvain, a Louvain-la-Neuve (Bèlgica).

Seminari.- Urbanisation and the role of rural-urban migration in Africa 1985-2015 – Evidence from indirect and direct measures of migration in 32 countries.

Rural to urban migration is often considered the driving force behind urbanisation. However, changes in the balance between fertility and mortality (natural growth), and changes in the definitions of what is considered urban (reclassification), are found to play a larger role in urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa than migration. We therefore aim to identify the contribution of these demographic forces to urbanisation and examine these trends in sub-Saharan Africa. Using 39 IPUMS censuses and 80 Demographic and Health Surveys we directly estimate rural-urban migration flows between 1976 to 2016. We then model these estimates to understand migration trends over time and as countries urbanise. In addition, we examine migration by differentiating between the capital city and other urban settlements. We find that that natural growth is negligible at the beginning of the urban transition, and then becomes dominant once the percent urban exceeds 30%. In contrast, the contribution of rural-urban migration declines, and we find instead greater urban-capital city migration flows.