Jakub Bijak és Professor en el Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton, Southampton (Regne Unit).

Abstract.- Migration is renowned for its uncertainty, complexity, and the lack of a strong theoretical background. The recent developments in model-based demographic simulation methods, such as agent-based modelling, offer a substantial promise of shedding some light on the complexity of migration. However, the existing approaches are still far from fulfilling this promise, and are themselves fraught with many epistemological pitfalls. In this talk, I will discuss the different elements necessary for the model-based approaches to work, and will sketch a methodology that can be used to link theory, social mechanisms, data, simulations and statistical inference. The discussion will be illustrated by an example of a new research programme on model-based migration studies, which is due to start in June 2017.